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gary.turner
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It seems the inhabitants of Great Britain and northern Europe are confused by the weather. There is a wide spread opinion that it is cold and snowy. Any well educated person knows that we're in the throes of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, so those poor sods are obviously living beyond their capacity for comprehension.

For proof, we need only read the learned pontifications of the CAGW cognoscenti. It's in all the papers, so it must be true.

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.

Tongue

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gary.turner wrote: It seems

gary.turner wrote:

It seems the inhabitants of Great Britain and northern Europe are confused by the weather. There is a wide spread opinion that it is cold and snowy. Any well educated person knows that we're in the throes of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, so those poor sods are obviously living beyond their capacity for comprehension.

Actually, in theory global warming will result in more snow, not less, until it gets very warm indeed. Warm air holds more water, and it can snow a lot more at 0 Celsius than it can at -20 Celsius. Furthermore weather is an oscilating system like a pendulum. Injecting energy causes wider oscilations at both extremes. When you push the pendulum to the right, it will also swing further left.

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The whole concept is still a

The whole concept is still a matter for conjecture, with scientists disagreeing totally with each other on the outcome of global warming and/or its cause.
The melting ice cap in the North Pole could have a major impact on the Gulf Stream which keeps Britain such a "green and pleasant land". But Northern Europe has gone through Ice Ages in the past which had nothing to do with human impact.
So whether you are for or against, it's definitely confusing especially for us Brits Tongue

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If it weren't for that Sun

If it weren't for that Sun thing we'd have a constant temperature all the time. Tongue

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regia wrote: The whole

regia wrote:

The whole concept is still a matter for conjecture, with scientists disagreeing totally with each other on the outcome of global warming and/or its cause.

Well, that's just not true. That's the lie being told by the big fossil fuel pushers who make big big money from shoving carbon into the atmosphere. But the science is pretty well decided and the planet is warming, and it is warming as the result of humans burning fossil fuels.

I recommend the http://www.skepticalscience.com/ website, where the evidence is published in readible form.

Quote:

The melting ice cap in the North Pole could have a major impact on the Gulf Stream which keeps Britain such a "green and pleasant land". But Northern Europe has gone through Ice Ages in the past which had nothing to do with human impact.
So whether you are for or against, it's definitely confusing especially for us Brits

The fact that forest fires often occur naturally doesn't mean that most of them aren't caused by people. The fact that some warming spells occurred naturally doesn't mean the current one wasn't caused by people burning fossil fuels.

We know it is, because it's been measured and is no longer in any serious doubt among the scientists who actually study such things, as opposed to the PR flacks for Big Oil who propagandize against it. These are the same folks who spent years denying that ciggarettes cause cancer. They were wrong then, and the evidence is overwhelming that they are wrong now.

Unfortunately if the mass of people are gulled by the propaganda many millions of lives will be lost. Talk about waste and innefficiency!

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Humans might be the cause

Humans might be the cause this time, but not previously as per your site
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period.htm
I was just making a light aside about the confusion that this causes amongst the majority of people, me included.
Sorry to have stepped on your toes. Sad

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regia wrote: Humans might be

regia wrote:

Humans might be the cause this time, but not previously as per your site
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period.htm

Well, that's just orthodox science. This is the first global warming unambiguously caused by people.

Quote:

I was just making a light aside about the confusion that this causes amongst the majority of people, me included. Sorry to have stepped on your toes. Sad

Testimony to the appallingly bad education in science that goes on these days. I am informally educated in Science just as in Web design. That's the way I learn, my learning style. If it was up to my schools I'd be as ignorant of science as most other people.

Unfortunately the current global warming is not a good subject for humour, unless it is of the "gallows humour" variety. The consequences of the near global ignorance of science.

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My one last haven, ruined. I

My one last haven, ruined. I used to come here to get away from the political bickering.

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The Telegraph remembered it too

Sorry. I didn't mean to start a religious war. I only meant to expose the irony of yet another global warming scaremonger's prediction gone wrong. If they get one right, I'll be sure to post it, and even up the tally card. In the mean time, it's just funny.

Since this is going into the second, or maybe the third year of colder and snowier than usual winters, I searched for the vaguely remembered prediction, and found it. I'm not the only one looking it would appear. The article is the #1 requested article at the Independent.

Just a bit ago, my Telegraph feed popped this up.

If you do think it's funny, have a laugh. If you don't, oh well, maybe next time I'll hit your funny bone.

cheers,

gary

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gary.turner wrote:Sorry. I

gary.turner wrote:

Sorry. I didn't mean to start a religious war. I only meant to expose the irony of yet another global warming scaremonger's prediction gone wrong. ...

I do find the whole AGW thing disingenuous. It's tied more to wealth transfer than planet saving. It is a bit funny and far from decided.

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gary.turner wrote: Sorry. I

gary.turner wrote:

Sorry. I didn't mean to start a religious war. I only meant to expose the irony of yet another global warming scaremonger's prediction gone wrong.

What prediction would that be? The science on global warming predicts more snowy winters, not fewer. There's no irony to expose that I can see.

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Ed Seedhouse

Ed Seedhouse wrote:
gary.turner wrote:

Sorry. I didn't mean to start a religious war. I only meant to expose the irony of yet another global warming scaremonger's prediction gone wrong.

What prediction would that be? The science on global warming predicts more snowy winters, not fewer. There's no irony to expose that I can see.

Click the link in the OP. The title is: "Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past". Dated about 11 years ago when global warming pundits predicted less snowy winters, not more. These about-faces lend less and less credibility to the AGW argument.

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Verschwindende wrote: Click

Verschwindende wrote:

Click the link in the OP. The title is: "Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past". Dated about 11 years ago when global warming pundits predicted less snowy winters, not more. These about-faces lend less and less credibility to the AGW argument.

A ten year old newspaper article is hardly the latest science!

On the other hand I read magazine articles in the 1980's pointing out that Global Warming would (if it happened which we couldn't prove back then) result at first in wider weather swings and more extreme events at both ends of the weather range.

If you are going to rely on 10 year old newspaper articles for your science, your going to learn bad science. I would have known back then that it was nonsense. Eventually of course, if the temperature rises a whole lot, snowfall in mid climates will lessen, but that's at least a good few decades away.

The poles are nowhere near the snowiest parts of the earth when measure by annual fall rate. Most of Antarctica is technically a desert, as is much of norther Canada and Siberia. To get the really good big dumps of snow you have to be up close the the freezing point where the air can hold more moisture.

The reason that poles have icecaps is not volume of snow, but the fact that, up until recently, the snow didn't melt in summer.

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Look man, the point of the

Look man, the point of the whole thread is that almost 11 years ago some schmuck predicted no more snow. gary.turner pointed out that he was wrong. It's funny if you're not wound too tightly.

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Bureau of redundancy bureau

Ed, just to be redundant, the issue is not the science, but that a leading light among AGW proponents made such a prediction with such a poor result.

Of course James Hansen is even sillier. In '88 or '89 he predicted that the Westside Hwy in NYC would be under water in 20 years*. Well, you can see how well he did on that. Should Hansen ever get one right, I'll post it, too, out of a sense of fair play.

cheers,

gary

* Bob Reiss, a Washington Post writer, who has written a climate calamity book, (paraphrasing, the title is "We're All Gonna Die!") recounts his research interviews with Hansen as dated above and again in 2001 in a recent interview. Hansen stands by his idiocity.

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Too many posts to follow -

Too many posts to follow - humorous intent of original appears to have been lost.

I will just say that I'm sitting in a relatively well insulated flat in central London (that's 'Downtown' to you yanks) and I'm cold as all get out can't feel my feet and there's this bloody snow stuff covering everything outside, it looks pretty but is a bugger to walk on after it's turned to slush and re-frozen as ice and our councils once again screw up the availability of grit for the pavements (sidewalks).

There is nothing man can do that nature can't simply laugh at. There are frigging spectacular planetary cycles that occur, I'm just waiting for the magnetic poles to do their flip flop it's apparently long overdue, if that happens in mankinds brief existence on this planet (I doubt we are intended to see out Earth's full term of existence) then we're toast - hell on earth will ensue and global warming will look very foolish a concern, or how about the Meteor that is predicted to pass within a few thousand miles of the planet some time in the not too distant future and that is being tracked with concern, or Yellowstone goes off.

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Hugo wrote: ... There is

Hugo wrote:

... There is nothing man can do that nature can't simply laugh at. There are frigging spectacular planetary cycles that occur ...

The Sun's cycles don't coincide with Earth's. Seems to me this keeps things relatively constant. Earth warms and then cools.

For man to control the climate he must control the Sun. I say "good luck".

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Yep point is that even if we

Yep point is that even if we were to get a grip and start acting responsibly it wouldn't make a huge amount of difference, the planet undergoes calamitous changes on a periodic basis it's just that our notion of time is minute compared to the billions of years the planet has evolved over, in ? 10,000 years we will be in another ice age? the poles will have reversed, any number of events that are just natural cycles which we have yet to experience and document in our sad 3000 years of civilised history.

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I know where you're coming

I know where you're coming from. Even with this conservative-type ideal I'll bet you're still against polluting the planet and protecting the environment, contrary to media consensus.

I'm all for trying to make the world a better place but not for the purpose of political gain or driving an agenda.

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gary.turner wrote: Ed, just

gary.turner wrote:

Ed, just to be redundant, the issue is not the science, but that a leading light among AGW proponents made such a prediction with such a poor result.

Leading light? What evidence do you have for that claim? A Wikipedia search and a google search turn up nothing on the name "David Viner" relating to climate change. And a ten year old newspaper article? Come on.

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Ed Seedhouse wrote:Leading

Ed Seedhouse wrote:

Leading light? What evidence do you have for that claim? A Wikipedia search and a google search turn up nothing on the name "David Viner" relating to climate change. And a ten year old newspaper article? Come on.

Ed, buddy, you're being all contemptible over a funny observance that something predicted 10 years ago still hasn't happened. Maybe someday 10 years from now we'll have a go at your posts here. That is if the oil companies haven't forced us all into the ocean because they're evil and greedy and offer us nothing but death and poverty.

Seriously though, try to relax. You'll live longer and be much happier. I guarantee it.

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Hugo wrote: Yep point is that

Hugo wrote:

Yep point is that even if we were to get a grip and start acting responsibly it wouldn't make a huge amount of difference

Well, the actual scientists who have studied the situation and done the actual numbers say quite differently.

Quote:

the planet undergoes calamitous changes on a periodic basis

So now you want to add a man made one on top of all those? Not being content with surviving various calamities mankind should now throw another one, self made, into the mix just to practice surviving calamities or something? I find that an odd approach, muself.

Quote:

it's just that our notion of time is minute compared to the billions of years the planet has evolved over, in ? 10,000 years we will be in another ice age? the poles will have reversed, any number of events that are just natural cycles which we have yet to experience and document in our sad 3000 years of civilised history.

Global warming won't hurt the planet, which will continue on it's way around the sun every year largely undisturbed. But the Earth doesn't need humanity, or even life, to keep doing that.

Predjudiced as I am, however, in favour of keeping people and life on the surface of our local ball of magma, I would rather do what we need to make sure we stay around. And I'd like as few people as possible do die from climate change. And we could, without too much trouble, prevent most of those deaths with not all that much cost.

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Verschwindende wrote: ]Ed,

Verschwindende wrote:

]Ed, buddy, you're being all contemptible

Well, comtemptible is as comttemptable does. What's "contemptable" about my response to Hugo? Is disagreement now "contemptible". "Contemptible" is rather a strong, and to some even hurtful, word.

Quote:

Maybe someday 10 years from now we'll have a go at your posts here.

Well, maye it's 50/50 that I'll be around to have a go at. My dad died at 74 and I do hope to outlive him, but it's not a guarantee.

Quote:

That is if the oil companies haven't forced us all into the ocean because they're evil and greedy and offer us nothing but death and poverty.

Um. What?

Quote:

Seriously though, try to relax. You'll live longer and be much happier. I guarantee it.

Well, I think it's you who need to relax some, myself. Otherwise you wouldn't have a need to raise irrelevant straw men here, or call people who disagree with you "contemptible".

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Why do you keep quoting

Why do you keep quoting "contemptible"?

I didn't mean to hurt your feelings, Mr. Quotemonger. Tongue

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Verschwindende wrote: ... Mr.

Verschwindende wrote:

... Mr. Quotemonger. ...

Oh, sorry. I know you have trouble with humor. I don't think that's really your name and I know quotation marks aren't for sale it was in response to the numerous quotation marks in your last post. Carry on. Crazy

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Verschwindende wrote: Why do

Verschwindende wrote:

Why do you keep quoting "contemptible"?

I didn't mean to hurt your feelings, Mr. Quotemonger.

More name calling. It suggests to me only, I am afraid, that you do not feel so secure about the positions you are taking here. Again, I think you are the one who needs to relax about this.

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Ed Seedhouse wrote: More name

Ed Seedhouse wrote:

More name calling. It suggests to me only, I am afraid, that you do not feel so secure about the positions you are taking here. Again, I think you are the one who needs to relax about this.

I'm rather secure about this thread being funny and I'm almost certain that you missed that altogether.

So, what was all the quoting of "contemptible" about anyway?

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I'm just going to apologize

I'm just going to apologize and back out slowly. Didn't mean any harm.

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Ed Seedhouse wrote: Leading

Ed Seedhouse wrote:

Leading light? What evidence do you have for that claim? A Wikipedia search and a google search turn up nothing on the name "David Viner" relating to climate change. And a ten year old newspaper article? Come on.

At the time, he was senior research scientist at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. I believe he has moved on to an Omigod, we're all gonna die CAGW NGO. He has addressed the U.N. on climatic matters. I did find this:

in Jan, 2007, UEA wrote:

Scientists from the University of East Anglia's 5** School of Environmental Sciences - particularly from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) - have been involved in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change since its inception in the 1980s. UEA has more academics involved in the report than any other university. But what exactly is the IPCC? Dr David Viner from CRU explains the background.

(emphasis added)
Unfortunately, the referenced podcast seems unavailable.

I would say his position qualified him for the term, "leading light".

Ed, did you look past Google page 1? The skeptics have been having a good laugh at him and his prediction, bumping any other links quite a ways down.

cheers,

gary

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I am and remain a staunch

I am and remain a staunch existential nihilist if not sure what that one and only true philosophy believes look it up.

That now sums up my position!

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Sorry Hugo, You've lost your

Sorry Hugo,

You've lost your credibility as a new wave hippie beatnik. If you have to name it ...

BTW, that's not snow. I've been reliably informed that its really global warming detritus. Wink Get with the program.

cheers,

gary

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Nah me new wave hippie

Nah me new wave hippie beatnik days are behind me there's only so many times you an read 'On The Road'

I've a thought now that we have this vitriolic thread running how about us Brits and Yanks chew over those 257,000 leaked communications Smile Had a quick spin through the wikileaks site today you yanks really don't like us do you Sad feels like the whole world is against the English case in point with FIFA denying us our rightful hosting of the worlds national sport; the sport - like most - that we gave to the world. It's time we reminded the world of the debt they owe our little island. Big smile

Ever since our minor problem with Philby, Burgess, and Maclean the American intelligence services regarded us as a joke and not to be trusted or privy to the highest classified intel, punishment for the then greatest spy scandal to rock the western services - huh that has now been well and truly surpassed **giggle** egg and face spring to mind Tongue

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Here we go again

Hey Hugo, you sure like to stir it up Tongue
I'll bet you'll get some riled up answers to this one Party

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n no it's just such an

Cool n no it's just such an interesting insight into how the American establishment think Laughing out loud I would never stir things up Innocent

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Who called the plumber?

I've been trying to think of some answer to your comments, and find it difficult to find anything good coming out of the state department. There've been good things, but usually in spite of rather than because of the denizens of Foggy Bottom's actions.

These leaks have put some of our putative friends in a quandary. The leaks show evidence of how the U.S. manipulated climate data to support AGW, and how the striped pants set worked to bribe or extort support for the Copenhagen accords. What's a poor fellow to do, attack the U.S. or support CAGW? Two of their favorite missions in life at conflict.

Personally, I'm not all that upset about the leaks. The people talked about are for the most part big boys who already knew what was being said about them, just as they were saying the same type of things about our people. It just hasn't been leaked (yet?). Except for the opportunity to bluster publicly, nothing different there. I am concerned where individuals, through no fault of their own, are being put in harm's way.

The lesson, as you Brits so often put it, our masters will learn from this is not that government should act ethically*, but that the sorry way they do act should be better hidden.

cheers,

gary

* I do generally consider espionage to be an ethical act toward securing the safety of the people.

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Not sure one would refer to

Not sure one would refer to espionage as ethical or moral, but then again I'm also a moral niahilist, but simply as understandably necessary.

What upsets many of us is to have splashed all over our broadsheets comments by some fatuous little twerp installed to run a provisional government in some waste of space historically problematic country that the British troops fighting to keep his country stable and dying on a daily basis are 'Not up to the task' cheeky bugger!

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Snow shovel? I don't need no bleedin' snow shovel

Just to return to a more humorous vein;

I'm certain that the good doctor Viner's prediction has caused the vast majority of snow shovels to be beaten into lawn chairs (ain't gonna shovel snow no more). Handy, too, for those BBQ (fill in the blank) seasons the Met has been promising. Smile

Photo from Minnesotans for global warming.

cheers,

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I'll have it then. Our Met

I'll have it then. Our Met office is stating it's a foregone conclusion for huge amounts of snow over the next few weeks with Artic winds heading straight down on to us at 50mph, apparently we are in for a whole heap of fun Smile can't wait, personally find it highly amusing when the country grinds to a halt and business starts moaning about lack of staff or transport for them.

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Hugo wrote: I'll have it

Hugo wrote:

I'll have it then. Our Met office is stating it's a foregone conclusion for huge amounts of snow over the next few weeks with Artic winds heading straight down on to us at 50mph, apparently we are in for a whole heap of fun Smile can't wait, personally find it highly amusing when the country grinds to a halt and business starts moaning about lack of staff or transport for them.

Well, where I live all that takes is 2 centimeters overnight to do that. Seriously, people died as a result of such a snowfall on lower Vancouver Island just a few weeks ago. So there is tragedy mixed in with the irony.
The irony being that here in the supposed land of snow, namely Canada, a couple of cm. can grind a city to a halt for days and kill people.

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You surprise me saying a few

You surprise me saying a few cm of snow causes that much trouble in a country that should be prepared for real winters,

Here in the UK we just fly into a blind panic at just one snowflake.

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Hugo wrote: You surprise me

Hugo wrote:

You surprise me saying a few cm of snow causes that much trouble in a country that should be prepared for real winters,

Here in the UK we just fly into a blind panic at just one snowflake.

Well, not all of Canada is snow country, contrary to the stereotype. Victoria B.C., where I live, is well south of the main boundary at the 49th parallel and well to the south of anywhere in Brittain. Furthermore we are surrounded by ocean on three sides and warmed by the Japanese current. Snow is rare, and rain is light at 27 inches per year, because the city happens to be at the center of rain shadow on three sides.

The climate here is best described as "Mediteranian", similar to northern California. Weather in general is mild and freezing temperatures while not uncommon, are not the norm even in "winter" (which is actually better described as "the rainy season".)

Today it is raining lightly and at 10:00 a.m. the outside temperature sits at about 5 degrees Celsius, which is cooler than yesterday when it sat around ten for most of the day.

Vancouver, to our northeast, and Seattle to our southeast both have much more rain and more temperature extremes at both ends of the scale.

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Wow! Who'da thunk it?

Wow! Who'da thunk you'd have 8in./year less rain than Dallas?

cheers,

gary

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gary.turner wrote: Wow!

gary.turner wrote:

Wow! Who'da thunk you'd have 8in./year less rain than Dallas?

The rain shadow effect is fairly concentrated and only a few miles wide, really. Surrounding municipalities wil often have pouring rain whereas the four "core" downtown municipalites are largely dry or only raining lightly.
This is ofen show up quite nicely on the Google Earth weather radar map where Victoria looks like an island amid a sea of green. We have ranges of lowish (ca 1000 ft.) hills to our west and north which tend to force the incoming air from the pacific to rise and disgorge it's load of water before it gets to us. To the south the Olympic range in the USA are 5000-8000 feet high and their shadow effect for moisture coming in from Hawaii extends north to Victoria. That covers most of the moisture since weather flows West to East here in general.

So unless it's a good big storm it often doesn't get to wet us down.

In general the west coast of BC sees moderate average temperatures and a whole bunch of rain. Tofino, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, gets around 12 feet a year!

Also, we do get occasional big dumps of snow, we had around three feet in 1997 and I was trapped in my home for three days. We do get weather here, but only rarely.

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we've descended to talking

Big smile we've descended to talking about the weather, thought that was an infliction only us Brits had.

Very interesting detail Ed, and you're right I'm led by mis-conceptions about Canadian climate as being harsh, artic and frontier like, but god it's a huge country makes the USA look like a pin prick on the map Tongue

You've sold me on the climate though, all you need to mention is my fav word 'Mediterranean' where one day I'll finally be able to retire to, French Riviera hopefully.

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Everybody talks about the weather but nobody ...

Texas being a major farm and ranch economy, we talk weather all the time. We have an oft quoted homily, "If you don't like the weather, wait ten minutes." We have hot, dry high pressure domes moving up from the Sonora Desert in the horse latitudes, tropical lows coming from the Gulf, and nothing between us and the North Pole but a few strands of barbed wire. Did I ever tell you about the day I was walking home from school, and the temperature dropped from the high eighties to below freezing in less than forty minutes? We call those fronts "blue northers". The cold air coming down from Canada is so much denser than the warm air it's displacing, you can see it as a blue wedge coming at you.

cheers,

gary

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Quote: and nothing between us

Quote:

and nothing between us and the North Pole but a few strands of barbed wire

Would that comment sit well with your neighbours ? Smile

Personally I love weather and am happy to read comments from you both all day long - simply a fascinating science and pivotal to whole our whole planet functions, just wish we had any weather of interest in the UK - and now am hankering to experience those extremes and sheer magnificence and grandeur of scenery and climate you both enjoy. Actually more than a little jealous right at this minute.

There you got me staring at maps, lost in daydreams.

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Hugo wrote: Very interesting

Hugo wrote:

Very interesting detail Ed, and you're right I'm led by mis-conceptions about Canadian climate as being harsh, artic and frontier like, but god it's a huge country makes the USA look like a pin prick on the map Tongue

To be fair, most of Canada fits the stereotype very well. I spent five years in Toronto and the weather eventually drove me back.

Quote:

You've sold me on the climate though, all you need to mention is my fav word 'Mediterranean' where one day I'll finally be able to retire to, French Riviera hopefully.

I may have trouble with our locals if they ever find out I've revealed the truth about our local climate. Victoria has just about the right amount of people for a good life without disastrous overcrowding, but we are growing a bit faster than many would like and fifty years from now we may be badly overcrowded. Some people therefore don't like it when we mention our local paradise to the great unwashed.

But, just to add to my sins, I'll also mention that the Pacific Northwest in general is expected to suffer much less than other areas (like say the actual Mediterranian) from global warming, at least in the near term.

But don't come here, the people are all jerks, like me. You wouldn't like it here, really... Big smile

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gary.turner wrote: The cold

gary.turner wrote:

The cold air coming down from Canada is so much denser than the warm air it's displacing, you can see it as a blue wedge coming at you.

Fortunately for us on the West coast there's a nice big picket fence been erected to funnel all that lovely cold air away from us and down on you. Known as the Rockies, of course.

Out here on the islands off that same west cost we have another fence, known variously as the Coast range, the Cascades, etc. specifically designed to keep what leaks over the rockies away from us and funnel it down into eastern Washington and Oregon.

Bet you thought all that was natural, eh?

You might want to lobby D.C. to use a few strategic nukes to open up the fence and divert the cold westward.

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